Tuesday, October 27, 2020

Status, again

This theme is central to about all of what I do. However, it's more complicated than I have imagined. Part of that is learning. We're 'plastic' and do continue to learn (last year of the eighth decade). 

For now, here are pointers to current work is being done:

  • Quora - started here in July of 2015. The decline in posting at blogs is associated with this move which has been very interesting in its effects. Quora covers the bases. The equivalent to Truth Engineering is the 'Psychether' space, for one. 
  • Thomas Gardner Society, Inc. - what is gets more attention is our blog which has been in action during a decade of work in which we are always learning. This focus is on the 400 years of American history including the century plus that preceded the Revolution. 
  • GitHub - where the technical mind can get refreshed. Might have a code focus but is used, too, for managing complex data systems.  
  • Others - 

 Remarks: Modified: 10/27/2020

10/27/2020 --

Tuesday, January 14, 2020

Boeing and its roles

This blog (July 2007) and its sister (7'oops7 - August 2007) started thirteen years ago. The motive of this blog was truth engineering which developed under the auspices of Boeing and several projects. These were principally related to commercial aircraft but included others.

How did truth engineering come about? I was involved in the AI that had its infamous winter. After the winter began, the context and tools changed a little, but we continued for over a decade with knowledge based engineering (KBE). Not unlike what we have seen for the couple of decades of the www (IP, internet), advances in computing have inspired lots and lots of progress. And, because of this, we have a landscape of ability without any overview that means much.

In fact, those pushing at the edge are to where they have to deal with black boxes of unknown value and possible failure points. Nothing new. We knew of this type of thing, and the cyclic nature of the energies, decades ago. It's just that things are much more complicated now.

In fact, I remember my first drafting of thoughts about truth engineering in the context of KBE and the new thing, internet, that was taking things in new directions. I puzzled on how to express the issues of ideas that were on the verge of becoming problematic. As one can see with the blog, I merely started in 2007 with thoughts that were to cohere at some point. When was this to happen?

Well all along, I noticed little crackings of the underpinnings. And, we have a lot to discuss about that. Too, one saw major shifts as products moved people in directions that were not healthy. I could see this? Why do you think that I used 'silly valley' (billionaires with no real sense of the nature of things - yes, categorically so)? In any case, of late, the acceleration to the path to perdition has become more obvious, generally.

So, it's time to resurrect this approach, again, after a sidetrack in Quora. There, I answered questions and had blogs. They moved the latter to spaces which I will used, however I need to organize years of work, first.

One huge factor with this rework is the 737 Max. Having seen what workers wrote, I want to explain this to Boeing management. After all, engineers are the core of the business. If engineering cannot be ethical and do things right, then, where will leadership arise? I might, true leadership? That is, smart people lead themselves, even when they join groups. We don't know much about that dynamic, but Carl G. Jung's thoughts apply.

So, we're not picking on Boeing. KBE did phenomenal work, at the time. There were even efforts a machine learning. So, the current hype comes about from better tools and toys. The understanding has diminished. But not, truth engineering is right down this alley.

Oh yes, this is cursory. But, let's look at one thing that is important. At the guts of machine learning (say, CNN) are tricks of mathematics that might be nuanced a little different now, but we knew them decades ago. Like I said, the toys and tools are better. But those came from hard work by lots of folks.

The magic of computing gets abstraction's appeal to be too much since we really have no way to dampen that energy. On the other hand, we want to encourage innovation. Ah, what might be a key thing? Ethical economics. And, I am not referring to macro manipulations that are the love of the political crowd. No, I am talking a micro and operational approach that I have seen no one, but myself, take. If I overlooked something, I'll admit it. But show me.

In the meantime, let's look at crapularity (necessary hermeneutics) and at the fact that we've created a deep set of unhealthy conditions. The real tragedy is that all of this was done in the name of science (yet, it has been accepted due to the sexiness - well, we'll get to anthropology, too).

'Enuf for one day.

Remarks: Modified: 01/14/2020

01/14/2020 --




Friday, January 3, 2020

Summary, 2019

This year, we had the 737 Max in the spotlight. So many themes relate to that. We'll be back.

List of 2019 posts.

Remarks: Modified: 01/03/2020

01/03/2020 --

Thursday, August 8, 2019

Nash equilibria and hardness

Back when there was more of a logic focus, it seemed easier to argue for limitations since one could use terms like undecidable-ness. From my experience in KBE, we found enough events that puzzled to talk 'vertigo' (yes, lost in the fog). From an operational sense, we used a smart 'man-in-the-loop' to cut ourselves out of intractable situations (got 'er done).

Then, Bayes came along. He is not recent; it is just that computation finally caught up. I used him for a paper five decades ago and heard tsk-tsk. But, then, they laughed at Leontief, then, too. There were other tricks that have evolved. Systems became (much) more powerful. Lots of cheap energy was around and about. Too, seemingly, notions of constraint were left on the side of the road.

Data existence ballooned, though there are many issues left to discuss. That allowed a whole industry to grow (data science). AI/ML/DL took advantage of the situation. Games were won that had not been within grasp before.
Linguistics advanced, too. Computer-generated text rose like the sun. Yet, to this old-guy's eyes, we're dealing with a situation not unlike the million monkeys and a novel. Uncountable numbers of them creating?

The stuff does not resonate. But, I'm talking talents not recognized, yet. So, that's not even on the table.

To me, numeric abilities allowed a peanut-buttering without this being obvious. They force convergence. It looked, to hear the hype, that we're now all in a rosy time (colored glasses, for sure). But, again, the old guy will point to 12 years ago when the risk experts were saying, piece of cake - there will never be another downturn (on the eve of the very thing).

What gives? We need to discuss. So, Aviad shows hardness. There are regular discussions at Stanford and elsewhere.
To the old guy's mind, it's like a re-opening of what was known. Or taking it back off of the shelf. We'll have to rephrase some stuff. But, there are limits. And, there are things that AI needs to know dealing with structure and more. It's nice to see Nash re-evaluated.

Used for a Quora question: With Nash equilibria being shown as intractable, ought we consider that there are numeric limits to AI that are being ignored?

Remarks: Modified: 08/08/2019

08/08/2019 --

Thursday, May 9, 2019

Test by tragedy

Unfortunately, we get this, especially when things get complicated.

Ethics might be a way to bring decisions related to two recent events back to the table.

Remarks: Modified: 08/08/2019

08/08/2019 -- Let's just say this, an overly-complicated procedure came out with an unstable design that would have been seen in the older days. However, the process was changed and cut too far. The issue got by and was given to the compute folk to handle. Tsk.  

Sunday, December 30, 2018

Summary, 2018


Prior years:  20112012201320142015, 2016, 2017 (missing), 2018.

Remarks: Modified: 12/30/2018

12/30/2018 --

Sunday, November 18, 2018

Update

So, we're past what is called the mid-term (something like that) election. So, the blues took the House from the reds. That ought to dampen some of the whining. We will see. The Fed has started to quit the flaying of the savers. Some savings rates are up to 2% and more.

We never whined here. No, it has always been righteous indignation. Like the prophet of old, we could not see much but thing going crazy.

However, now is the time for reasonable folks to step forward, and we intend to do so.

Of late, our creative juices have been spent on two avenues: Thomas Gardner Society, Inc. site and blog; Quora, the indescribable, so to speak.

As we look at the influence of social media on society, we have to get back into that realm's need for truth engineering. We intend to use wind-speed social media as an anchor.

Remarks:  Modified: 11/18/2018

11/18/2018 --